What about Ukraine's major offensive?

Foreign Policy Lunch with Nico Lange and Christoph von Marschall

Since the NATO summit in Vilnius, a broad security alliance has been formed for post-war Ukraine. But there is still a war going on - and probably for a long time to come - reported Nico Lange in an "under three" Foreign Policy Lunch on the military situation in Ukraine.

At the event moderated by Christoph von Marschall, the reserve officer and Senior Fellow at the Munich Security Conference explained the difficulties Ukraine is facing in its current counter-offensive and the plans it is using to compensate for strategic disadvantages. Anyone hoping for the Ukrainian armed forces to advance as quickly as they did during the offensive in fall 2022 has so far been disappointed. One of the reasons for this is the geographical situation: southern Ukraine is flat terrain and offers little cover - large military operations would be seen and attacked immediately. To make matters worse, Russia has had plenty of time to fortify the front with fortifications and minefields and has air superiority there. In order to be able to break through the front one day, Ukraine must therefore operate with small task forces and attack the logistics and supplies of the Russian armed forces over a longer period of time.

It is now known that Ukraine has formed 20 brigades for its offensive, nine of them with Western equipment. However, only three of these have been deployed - Ukraine is apparently preparing for a long offensive. If a breakthrough is achieved on the front in the future and Crimea comes under pressure, it remains to be seen whether President Vladimir Putin will be willing to talk or whether the war will enter the next round.