"Ministers can also be altar boys"

Foreign Policy Talk on the US election and its consequences for Europe

Text: Philipp Zettl | Policy Officer

"Oops - they did it again", wrote the taz newspaper when US President George W. Bush was re-elected in 2004. Prof. Eberhard Sandschneider, the new co-chair of the VBKI's International Politics and Economics Committee, opened the US election analysis event at the VBKI with a look at this year's election winner, Donald Trump. He wanted to know from his guests, Juliane Schäuble, US correspondent for the Tagesspiegel, and Josef Braml, European Director of the Trilateral Commission think tank, how this election came about and what it means for transatlantic relations.

Braml sees dark times ahead for Germany: "We're left bare - and in an even worse position than after Trump's first election." Especially in uncertain times like these, Germany must act as a leading European power - but instead, new elections are on the agenda. This is particularly bitter, as Putin, Trump and Xi Jinping are three world leaders who are clearly placing their own agenda above multilateralism: "Anyone who is still playing the transatlantic game now has not heard the shot," says the US expert, who is as pointed as he is sobering.

Juliane Schäuble saw at least a small ray of hope for Europe in some of the candidates being discussed as members of the Trump administration. Marco Rubio, who is being touted as the future US Secretary of State, has international experience, knows Europe and has already been a guest at the Munich Security Conference, for example. However, Braml warned against too much optimism. The ministers were selected according to absolute loyalty: "Ministers can also be altar boys."

And will things continue in Ukraine? Trump had announced that he would end the war within 24 hours. According to Braml, Trump will not fight Putin, but will give Selensky the choice of accepting a peace treaty negotiated by him with Putin - i.e. with great losses for Ukraine - or no more arms deliveries. According to Schäuble, the Ukraine war is ultimately a regional conflict for the USA, the real conflict is with China. Accordingly, Trump has so far only appointed "China hawks" to his future cabinet. The aim: to stand up to China even more clearly than Joe Biden, who has already issued a "declaration of war" with the Chips Act.

The increasing focus on China, in Sandschneider's words "the return to a bipolar world", also opens up opportunities for other players to create facts. Israel, for example: After weakening Hezbollah and Hamas, the only last resort left to Iran as a deterrent would be to push ahead with its nuclear weapons program. Israel, Braml suspected, could seize the opportunity - with Iran weakened and President Biden as a "lame duck" - and preemptively attack its greatest enemy, Iran.

How should Germany position itself under a US President Trump? "Germany must finally arm itself more strongly and do what it has been saying it wants to do for a long time," advised the US correspondent. Braml agreed with this, but spoke of a "butter cannon problem": many Germans do not want to see Russia as a threat, which causes problems when it comes to prioritization: while adhering to the debt brake, it is only possible to either save on the butter, i.e. on things like education and infrastructure, in order to rearm, or vice versa. In the end, this strengthens the extreme fringes.

After all the terrible news, Juliane Schäuble concluded with some positive thoughts to take home: "The pendulum will swing in the other direction again." Trump had always claimed that he had never been able to govern properly. Now, thanks to majorities in the Senate, Congress and Supreme Court, he has at least two years to prove everyone wrong. If things don't go well for him, the Democrats will regain strength in the midterm elections. And: "The USA is more than just Washington D.C."